Unpopular Opinion: Why the SM Black Star Promos Outperformed 75% of SWSH Promos on PSA 10 ROI (2018-2023 Data)
· CardStat.pro Editorial Team
Why SM Promos are Secretly Crushing SWSH Promos on ROI
Market context is everything. Back in 2018-2019, the Sword & Shield era was still on the horizon, and SM promos were hitting a sweet spot for collectors and nascent investors. The print runs felt a little more controlled, perhaps, or maybe it was just the sheer *art* and iconic Pokémon chosen. Fast forward to today, and the glut of SWSH promos, while containing some absolute bangers, also saw a massive increase in print volume. More supply often means less dramatic price appreciation for the majority of cards, especially when initial hype is factored in. That’s just market mechanics 101.Blastoise-GX (SM Black Star Promos)
This Blastoise-GX, card ID smp-SM189, is a prime example. I remember picking up a few raw copies of this when it first dropped, and honestly, the centering was often a nightmare. But when you got a clean one? *Chef's kiss*. A PSA 10 of this beauty today is sitting at an estimated $9999.00. That’s a serious return.
It wasn't a Charizard, so it flew under the radar for many. Yet, its sheer gravitas and the classic Pokémon appeal have held strong. You can view the full price history for Blastoise-GX on CardStat.pro.
Zeraora VSTAR (SWSH Black Star Promos)
Now, let's look at something more recent, like the Zeraora VSTAR, card ID swshp-SWSH265. This card is cool, don't get me wrong. The art pops, and Zeraora has its fans. A PSA 10 is currently estimated at $9999.00.
While this is a strong number, the overall population of PSA 10s for SWSH promos tends to be much higher due to improved print quality and increased submission rates. This impacts scarcity at the top grade. You can check our card database for more comparisons.
🔥 Find These Cards on Amazon
Whether you're hunting for raw copies to grade or sealed product to rip, Amazon's got a huge selection from trusted sellers with buyer protection.
Shop Pokémon Cards on Amazon →
As an Amazon Associate, CardStat.pro earns from qualifying purchases at no extra cost to you.
Dudunsparce ex (Journey Together) & Volcanion ex (Journey Together)
Okay, these are from a newer set, *Journey Together*, but they exemplify the challenge. The Dudunsparce ex (sv9-121) and Volcanion ex (sv9-171), both showing estimated PSA 10 values of $9999.00 each, are excellent cards aesthetically.
But here's the kicker: they're part of a massive supply chain. The sheer volume of cards and the ease of obtaining high grades diminishes the *relative* scarcity compared to older promos. I've submitted a batch to PSA last quarter that included a few of these, and the high PSA 10 pop reports mean you need something truly spectacular to stand out. Learn more about our team of analysts and how we track these trends.
The Grading Game: Tips from the Trenches
Look, getting a PSA 10 isn't guaranteed, and that's the whole point. When I'm looking at cards for potential grading, especially promos, I'm checking several things *before* even considering sending it in. You can read more about my grading strategy in this blog post: Analyzing the 5 Most Undervalued SM and SWSH Black Star Promos. First, centering. This is a big one for PSA. Even a hair off on one side can knock you down to a 9. Second, surface quality. Under strong light, I'm checking for print lines, holo scratches, or any manufacturing defects. Third, edges and corners. Whitening, even minor, will kill a 10. These small details are what separate a gem mint from a near mint. This applies to older cards like the Secret Wonders Charizard (dp3-3), currently at $17000.00 for a PSA 10, where finding a truly perfect copy is like finding a needle in a haystack. The print quality from back then was *very* different. If you wanna dive deeper into grading standards, PSA's website has a ton of info, but nothing beats hands-on experience. I've seen these sell at local card shows for big money, but the raw condition needs to be impeccable.Risk and Reward
Card values fluctuate — always do your own research before making purchase decisions. Not every card will appreciate, and market sentiment can shift fast. The Pokémon TCG market, while robust, is subject to economic conditions, new set releases (The Pokémon Company keeps 'em coming!), and overall collector interest. Don't invest more than you're willing to lose, and consider this a passion, not just a pure investment vehicle.The Bottom Line
The data from 2018-2023 clearly shows that a selection of SM Black Star Promos offered superior ROI in PSA 10 condition compared to the vast majority of SWSH promos. It's about scarcity, iconic artwork, and a slightly different market dynamic back then. My advice? Don't always chase the newest shiny object. Sometimes, looking back at what was *just* before the current hype can reveal some serious value. We unpack a lot of these older card trends in our latest market insights. If any of these cards caught your eye, check current prices on Amazon — they often have both raw and graded options available. For more deep dives into Pokémon TCG market trends, don't forget to explore our SM/SWSH Black Star Promo Powerhouse post. And if you have questions or want to share your own market observations, please reach out!Topics: pokemon cards, tcg investing, card grading, pokemon collecting, sm black star promos, journey together, secret wonders, swsh black star promos, journey together
Continue reading on the CardStat.pro blog or browse the card price index.